Who will win the Gujarat war ?

Gujarat legislative elections are the last assembly elections among the 7 legislative elections that took place in 2017. Gujarat?s 14th legislative assembly elections are scheduled to be held on 9th and 14th December in 182 constituencies in Gujarat. This will be the first time since 2001 that Narendra Modi will not be the CM candidate so Gujarat will surely miss him. 

BJP(Bhartiya Janta Party), INC(Indian National Congress) and AAP(Aam Aadmi Party) are among the top parties whose candidates will compete in this arena of politics. All the 3 parties have announced their list of candidates, while BJP and INC will be fighting for the majority of the seats, AAP will fight over fewer seats. What makes Gujarat elections exciting is that In the past few years the trio of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor, and Jignesh Mevani has come up and they have spoken and fought for their communities i.e. Patidars, OBCs and Dalits respectively. About 41% of Gujarat?s populations account for these communities. Now BJP and the HAJ (Hardik, Alpesh, and Jignesh) trio are not in good terms with each other, recently a controversial video was released in which Hardik Patel was seen in a compromising position with a girl, it has heated up the election scene in the state so it will be very interesting to see how this X-factor works out in the polls. 

BJP has won the last 5 legislative elections and it can be said that people trusted Modi and therefore BJP won singlehandedly. Leaving the past aside, there have been a lot of changes like Vijay Rupani being appointed after Anidiben resigned, a result of the weak execution. There are many textile traders in Gujarat based in Surat and they have confined in BJP but after the implementation of GST and textile being under the 5% slab, the traders have faced loss. Almost half of the population of Gujarat i.e. 21 million people are agriculture workers and since the past ten years there have been fluctuations in the agricultural growth owing to short rainfall and poor export in the state, so this might not turn out well for BJP. But citizens of Gujarat have voted BJP for successive years, therefore, Modi ruled for 22 years and if they continue to do so out of respect for him, then the scales are in BJPs favor. Moreover, BJP currently has the government in the center as well as in the state and people respect the current CM Vijay Rupani so it?s a plus point too.

 Congress on the other has good resources, family name and goodwill besides it is trying to incline the trio of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani towards them, they have nothing to lose. Bharatsinh Solanki is a possible face for CM candidate from Congress because of his father Madhavsinh Solanki(4 times CM of Gujarat). Congress plays divide and rule politics and when it comes to mass following Congress lacks leaders, unlike BJP who has the lights of Amit Shah and other leaders. However, Rahul Gandhi(Vice President of the INC) has played it safe so far and INC?s opposition to demonetization may turn out in the elections, so overall Congress has a great chance to rejuvenate and improve its performance in Gujarat.

Last but not the least AAP may win a few seats but will not win the Assembly elections.BJP and INC will have a neck to neck battle in this different terrain of Gujarat and the HAJ trio will definitely come into play.